LOAD FORECASTING IN POWER SYSTEMS

A pragmatic methodology that can be used as a guide to construct Electric Power Load Forecasting models with real case studies

22 – 24 AUGUST 2016, MANILA, PHILIPPINES

About The Course

Load forecasting is a central and integral process for planning periodical operations and facility expansion in the electricity sector. Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets. Therefore, finding an appropriate forecasting model for a specific electricity network is not an easy task. Although many forecasting methods were developed, none can be generalized for all demand patterns. This training presents a pragmatic methodology that can be used as a guide to construct Electric Power Load Forecasting models. The trainer brings with him real case studies and examples from his direct experience in this industry.

Learning Outcomes

Participants will be able to understand and put into the practice the following key learnings

  • Significance and implementation of Load Forecast
  • Accuracy vs. Sensitivity of Load Flow assessment
  • Data mining and information requirement for the analysis
  • Methodology
  • Building a benchmark model for different utilities and examples from practice
  • Practical implementation, best practice and continuous updates

Who Should Attend

Load/price forecasters, energy traders, quantitative/business analysts in the utility industry, power system planners, power system operators, load research analysts, and rate design analysts

Course Faculty - Vukan Polimac

Vukan Polimac

Chartered Engineer MIET CIGRE SMEIT SAIEE

Fellow of IET, IEEE, CIGRE

Vukan Polimac

In his 30 years working experience he provided highest quality services in system planning and analysis to major transmission and distribution and transportation companies including London Underground, National Grid Company (UK), MTRC Metro in Hong Kong, West Coast Main Line connection to NG, Scottish Power, ESB-Ireland, ESKOM-South Africa, Mauritius CEB, Balkan countries – grids of Romania and former Yugoslavia, HV network ISA-Colombia, Western Power Distribution-UK, etc.

 

Vukan’s technical expertise includes most aspects of power systems analysis, electrical asset management and railway connections to power networks where he provides solutions to technical problems and supports other field’s experts in complex assignments. He has project management skills in technical and environmental projects as well as experience in short and long-strategic term planning, maintenance and asset management, power quality analysis of transmission and generation systems, distribution, transportation and other power networks. Experienced in generation and network integration, electrical component of energy master plans as well as strategic asset replacement, he was also involved in load- forecast analysis and generation dispatching. Published papers on asset management based on projects and experience in working for distribution companies in Africa and Europe.

 

Vukan is very experienced in design, procurement, commissioning, erection and refurbishment of major projects in transmission and distribution substations up to 420 kV and hydro and thermal power plants. Served as project manager on several major projects as well as head of the Engineering Group, Vukan was responsible for final design, equipment specifications, layouts tender evaluation and commissioning. He has carried out conceptual development of protection and control philosophy for various projects as well as reviewed and approved project drawings and documents. He has applied the latest IEC standards, various codes of practice and engineering recommendations.  He has also specific experience in conceptual design of power supply for transportation and traction railway systems, defining the design principles and technical specifications for future design and privatisation process. He has analysed quality of power supply for connection of AC and DC unbalanced load to power network and published papers on practical implementation. Vukan carried out feasibility studies on reactive compensation (SVC and MSC) focusing on voltage variation and harmonic distortion issues.

 

Vukan has performed technical and economic evaluations, cost benefit net present value analysis, of various transmission and distribution schemes and electrical equipment. He carried out a number of asset evaluation analysis on electrical equipment and published papers on asset management, reliability and maintenance. He has performed equipment assessment and residual life prediction as part of strategic asset management analysis for a major underground transportation company in Asia. His duties have also included equipment arrangement optimisation in particular reliability aspect in terms of failure rate and financial consequences as non-supplied energy to the consumers.

Topics Covered

  • Building a benchmark model for different utilities and examples from practice
  • Practical implementation, best practice and continuous updates
  • Significance and implementation of Load Forecast
  • Accuracy vs. Sensitivity of Load Flow assessment
  • Data mining and information requirement for the analysis
  • Methodology
This training course has a limited attendance for up to 20 participants only. Sessions commence at 9am on all days, with short intervals at 10.30am and 3.30pm respectively. Refreshments will be provided in the short intervals. Lunch will be provided at 12:30pm for 1 hour. Sessions will end at 5pm on all days.

Unique Features with powerEDGE Training

• Pre-Course Questionnaire to help us focus on your learning objectives
• Detailed Course & Reference Manual for Continuous Learning and Sharing
• Practical Exercises & Case Examples to better understand the principles
• Limited class size to ensure One-to-One Interactivity
• Assessment at the end of the course to help you develop a Personal Action Plan